Yates injury fallout, Ray injury fallout, Springer injury fallout, (deep breath) Biggio injury fallout, and more!
Well the physical didn’t show it,
The closer couldn’t throw it,
With Georgie Springer stretching out his side,
Ross Atkins' tragic news dump made us cry,
While Robby Ray's unconscious on the landing tile
We're talking' blue balls,
From Atkins and Montoyo,
Talkin’ blue balls,
Is it time to sign Arroyo?
Remember Monday? Remember hope? Well, Blue Jays fans hoping that Kirby Yates’ flexor pronator strain might be of the mild variety suffered by Shohei Ohtani in late 2020 — *COUGH* — had their hopes dashed by an announcement from Jays GM Ross Atkins on Tuesday. The GM told reporters in a late afternoon media session that Yates had already received a second opinion on the injury, “completed an MRI, and is most likely headed towards a procedure on his elbow with UCL involvement.”
That procedure, which Atkins was oddly careful not to name, is season-ending Tommy John surgery. He called it “the most likely outcome.” Then, when asked if Yates would seek another opinion, he added that “it doesn't sound like he will be. He's already received a second opinion.”
In other words, Yates’ Blue Jays career is, sadly, over before it started. For now.
I say “for now” because maybe they’ll give him another look again next year, or sometime in the future. The Jays very clearly like — or liked — Yates quite a lot. More than other teams, it turns out, who were scared off by his medicals.
“Twice during the offseason, the results of Kirby Yates’ physicals raised red flags,” wrote the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal on Tuesday night.
“The first time,” he continues, “the Braves declined to finalize a one-year, $9 million agreement with the free-agent closer, according to major-league sources. The second time, the Blue Jays reduced a proposed one-year, $8.5 million guarantee for Yates to $5.5 million, believing his upside was high enough to justify the risk.”
Does that cause us to think any differently about this deal?
Well, we probably can safely stop saying it’s great. But otherwise, I don’t think it should very much. Yes, the Jays were the team in baseball most comfortable allocating a bunch of resources that could have been spent elsewhere to Yates, but they did so with their eyes wide open.
“Our take is that he was healthy, he had no pain, no symptoms whatsoever,” Atkins told reporters on Tuesday. “It would be better to have a medical expert say chronic versus acute, or 'acute on chronic,’ but part of it was someone that was coming off a procedure, and we knew it was very high risk, with potential of high reward.”
It was indeed a very fun idea they committed to here. Yates was worth 3.4 wins, per FanGraphs, in just 60 2/3 innings back in 2019. That’s an impressive feat. To give some perspective on that, Ken Giles was spectacular as the Blue Jays’ closer that season, yet his fWAR was just 1.8.
WAR, of course, is not the be all, end all, especially for relievers, but you get the idea. A healthy Yates would have been incredibly good and fun. And as easy as it is to bemoan the fact that he apparently wasn’t ever actually healthy, that’s exactly the kind of risk I want to see the Blue Jays take. This wasn’t some big, multi-year deal that had any chance of hampering the franchise long-term, this was $5.5 million (plus $4.5 million in potential bonuses) when the alternatives were guys with plenty of warts of their own.
Still, in Rosenthal’s piece he points out that some good relievers — Mark Melancon, Jake McGee, and Trevor Rosenthal — were available at the point at which the Jays agreed to terms with Yates. All three of those guys ended up signing for similar money. In retrospect, we can’t say that the Jays shouldn’t have gone with one of those alternatives, but whose to say they’ll be healthy or effective either? Reliever arms are a volatile appendage.
Hopefully the Jays have learned a little bit of a lesson about risk assessment here, but I absolutely do not want to see them to overcorrect from this.
The team is supposed to know better — they were the ones who held the medicals and saw the results of the physical and signed the revised contract anyway, not fans — but if you cheered this signing, like most did, I don’t think you can roast them too badly for the outcome. Yates had the green light, medically, to be out there this spring, building up arm strength for the season. He reached the point of throwing at maximum effort in live spring training games. He wasn’t that broken. Until he was.
Where does the bullpen go from here?
To answer the question posed by the heading above, not very far, I don’t think. Even without Yates, the Jays have a fairly impressive group of relievers that they don’t necessarily need to add to. Rafael Dolis or Jordan Romano will now slot into the closer’s role. Tyler Chatwood, David Phelps, and Ryan Borucki give them some excellent arms to help bridge the gap from the fifth (or fourth) through the eighth innings of ballgames, with room still there for guys like Julian Merryweather, Trent Thornton, Francisco Liriano, A.J. Cole, Tim Mayza, Anthony Castro, or Anthony Kay. Eventually Thomas Hatch will be an option as well — Atkins said on Tuesday that the team is encouraged "that the initial diagnosis is accurate and he is not going to be missing significant time, as long as he progresses and doesn't have a setback." So, too, will Ross Stripling, who is likely to get bumped back to the bullpen when the team is able to activate Nate Pearson, who, according to Atkins, is "already throwing again, feels very good, (and is) in a very good place mentally and physically."
Complicating matters, however, is one of the other bits of bad news the Jays received on Tuesday: the fact that Robbie Ray has bruised his throwing elbow after falling down the stairs in his home while carrying his child.
The kid is fine, which is the important bit. “I think that was part of the injury,” Atkins added. “Making sure (keeping the child from getting hurt) was the priority. Bracing for that.”
As for Ray, the team is hopeful that he’ll only miss one Grapefruit League start and will be able to return to the rotation for their season-opening series against the Yankees.
Hopefully that is indeed the case, and hopefully this ends up being just a minor setback, but oh man, what an awful time this is for Ray to be on the shelf. Over his four Grapefruit League starts so far Ray has walked five batters and struck out 18 over 13 2/3 spring innings, allowing just six hits, while producing a 1.98 ERA and very tasty uptick in velocity. He’s looked every bit as good as that sounds, too.
He seemed to be on the right path, and you hate to see that path interrupted, even if it’s only for a short while.
Though the Jays have enough arms to ensure they’ll be OK in the long term, beginning the season with the pitching staff stretched this thin isn’t ideal. That’s why, according to Atkins, the team will now be a bit more “assertive” in looking at making additions.
That statement made some waves on Tuesday, but as much as fans may want it to be, I’m not sure it’s a signal that splashy moves are on the horizon. Here’s the full quote:
I would start it by saying that we are exceptionally confident in our depth in that area. But at the same time you can never have enough, and we're always thinking about how we can add, where it makes us better — not just to raise the floor, but potentially even raising the ceiling. I feel so good about so many stories that we've had in camp beyond the names that will be considered for pitching in the ninth inning. I know Charlie commented on that yesterday, but stories that we've had from Timmy Mayza thus far, Travis Bergen's return, the fastball tick-up, how well Francisco Liriano has pitched. Anthony Castro has been performing exceptionally well. Obviously the names that have already been talked about a lot that we've been relying on in years past and guys that have had incredible track records. But, again, we've worked hard to build up our depth in that area and feel very good about the foundation, but need to factor this in and consider if we need to be more aggressive as it relates to acquisitions before the trade deadline. We've been working on that and we'll revisit that in a more assertive way.
It would be better here for them to be proactive than wait until they’re in an even tighter spot to make a move, so I wouldn’t necessarily rule one out. But Atkins isn’t saying here that they’re going to rush out an make a trade. If anything, I’d bet on it being a guy like Reese McGuire for a warm body rather than something that gets your dick hard.
To be a good major league baseball team is to have the kind of depth required to ride out these kinds of storms, and that’s exactly what the Jays have been building toward becoming over the last several years.
Even the situation with George Springer isn’t overly concerning.
He’s being held back because of an oblique issue — ongoing tightness that had forced him to be scratched from a game earlier in the month, but that wasn’t considered serious — revealed by an MRI to actually be a Grade 2 strain. The odd thing about this one is that both club and player found the diagnosis surprising because Springer wasn’t really affected by it.
The Jays are “really encouraged by his ability to play baseball, and just two days ago, with nothing new happening,” Atkins said. “It was more just the fact that it was continuing — the tightness — that we wanted to get an MRI. The MRI revealed an injury that he's able to play baseball with.”
“He is extremely motivated and driven to be ready for opening day,” Atkins added. “I would imagine that it would have to be us taking that completely out of his hands in order for him not to be playing on opening day. So we'll stay open minded to it and reassess as we continue to get closer. But as I said, and can't reiterate it enough, our inability to recreate that pain, or for him to feel significant loss of strength or range of motion is extremely encouraging.”
You never want to see your best player hurt, and it would be a shame to not have him there on opening day, but the team is built for 162 games, not just one. They all seemed to come at once, but it’s not like that Jays have had an abnormal number of spring injuries overall.
So, was Tuesday a great day? No. But it wasn’t exactly catastrophic, either. No matter how hard certain reporters tried to get Atkins to say otherwise.
“Are you not feeling any way snakebit? Like, 'why us' at this point?” came one question during Tuesday’s session. “Your big signing, you don't know what his status is, per se. The big pitcher you added to the bullpen, he's out for the year. Like, is there any 'snakebit' in all of this?”
“No. Not whatsoever,” Atkins replied. “That's not how I feel. I feel that it's just a part of it. As I said, I think it may be a bit atypical that on one day I'm starting off an interaction with each of you talking about three individuals that were a key part of the plan, but when you step back from it and think about where we are as we prepare for the season, we maintain that optimism and excitement.”
And yet another injury!
The Jays play the Yankees in Tampa at 1:05 PM ET here on Wednesday, and though it was originally announced that Cavan Biggio was in the lineup, he was a late scratch due to “right pinky finger discomfort.”
Biggio took a ball off that finger receiving a throw two days ago, and clearly the Jays seem to have reached the stage where they’re breaking out the protective bubble wrap and hoping to just get through this last week of fake baseball healthy.
The old adage is indeed true.
The fact that Biggio was initially slated to play suggests to me that this isn’t an enormous issue either, but I guess we’ll see! For now I’d rather not think too much about who plays third base regularly if Biggio is hurt!
More from Atkins
Obviously the injuries were the main focus in Ross Atkins’ Tuesday media session, but they weren’t the only things he touched on. Some additional highlights.
• On non-roster players with opt-outs upcoming
Guys like Joe Panik and Francisco Liriano will be able to opt out of their contracts this week if they aren’t added to the Jays’ 40-man, and at one point Atkins was asked whether those players had been told anything about their status.
We haven't given anybody anything concrete, it's been more just talking to them about where things stand and how we're thinking about it, and then letting them know that we'll give them clarity when we need to make that decision.
He later expanded on this, as it relates to Joe Panik and the guys he’s competing for a bench spot with — Brevyic Valera and Santiago Espinal.
With every decision, as we think about complementing the 26-man, 40-man roster, there's two things. It's, one, how do we win every day, and what's the best complementary skillset to how Charlie will use that position player roster, as it relates to Joe Panik and the names that you mentioned. What the playing time looks like. And then secondarily, depth. So, thinking about how we can protect ourselves in the event of injury. And experience is a part of that. I know that wasn't part of your question, but we have to factor that in as well. So, experience, on both sides, so lack thereof could be part of the equation, and the need for regular playing time.
What he’s basically saying here, I think, is that Espinal is unlikely to make the club, because he can be optioned to the minor leagues while the other two can’t. Espinal also ought to be getting regular playing time in the minors, while a veteran like Panik is probably more comfortable being on the bench (and his development isn’t exactly being hampered for it). I would guess that Valera ends up on waivers at some point, with Panik taking his spot on the 40-man, but I suppose it’s still possible they go the other way.
I’d joke about them maybe opening the season with both, because of Biggio’s finger situation, but that would seem like tempting fate a little too much at this point.
• On Trent Thornton
Obviously what he did two years ago in the AL East was exceptionally important to where he is today, and I'm not surprised at all. Given his ability to have a complete arsenal that he can throw over the plate on a regular basis, recover well, so it looks like he's back to the Trent Thornton that we saw before, and we're very pleased by that. So we'll see what role, or what shape that could take, based on the next week and what our alternatives are. But he is certainly a very good option for us to be in our major league bullpen, and if not we'll consider what other strategies we can take from him.
Atkins added that the Jays still see him as a starter long-term, but with Yates gone and Stripling in the rotation in Pearson’s spot, starting the year in the bullpen seems like the most realistic option for Thornton. Frankly, I’ve always thought it was a decent bet that he’d end up as a multi-inning reliever of some kind anyway, just because of the way the Astros used him while he was in that organization (frequently giving him extra rest) and the fact that as soon as his workload increased he got hurt. I could see him going back to Buffalo and working as a starter at some point later in the season, but that will be a tougher call to make if he’s successful in the bullpen to start the year. Which he probably will be!
• On where Vancouver will play this year
I'm not sure if MLB has worked out the final details of that. I just want to make sure that all the stakeholders are aware. But we do have clarity.
Expect an announcement soon on this, I guess. Just maybe don’t expect the Canadians to be allowed to host teams coming across the border at Nat Bailey this year!
Links! (By which I mean assorted tweets)
• Unless the league is going to go back into previous years’ data to identify pitchers whose spike in spin rate may indicate they’ve been using an illegal substance (*COUGH* A CERTAIN MEMBER OF THE DODGERS *COUGH*) I’m not sure I care very much about this. But if so, giddy up!
• The 2021 season will, amazingly, be the sixth one played since Mark Buehrle last pitched in the majors. And yet I am still absolutely here for any and all Buehrle content.
• Apparently this was the first time Bo Bichette has ever had a ball come off his bat at greater than 110 mph. That’s surprising. But it sure as hell does sound pretty.
• Clearly the Blue Jays’ rash of injury announcements on Tuesday was karma for all the Jays fans who enjoyed seeing this tweet about a key Yankees starter (and former Blue Jays target).
• Baseball’s launch angle revolution is, apparently, not for everyone. Or, at least, shouldn’t be.
Top image via @KauaiKirby39. Chubbs, we hardly knew ye.
I’m enjoying your newsletter, for the most part. Others may not see any issue with this, but it didn’t sit well with me and I wanted to make a comment. Any chance you could put a little more thought into your analogies other than “gets your dick hard”. I’m sure there may have been an alternative, more professional way to make your point. Thanks
Baseball is such a weird and unpredictable sport. Everyone expects our lineup to mash and our pitching to be a weakness, perhaps moreso now. Yet, it would not surprise me at all if our pitching turns out to be a strength and our offence so-so. Or not. And there's always a pitcher or two that seems to come out of nowhere and excel. I wonder who that will be this year?
I also wonder what the psyche of the modern day pitcher is. If it was me, I'd spend every waking moment hoping my arm wasn't going to implode on the next pitch.