I think you're right about the third option. The course of the club is more or less locked in at this point: It’s too early to tear down and too late to significantly reset. They can deal a catcher (probably Jansen) to bring back a starter, and maybe a decent lefty bat can be obtained for prospects. But with Chapman, Gurriel, Hernandez, and Merrifield all FAs after 2023, and Springer not getting any less fragile, this is a win-right-now team.
I also agree that improvement will have to be internal. Bo actually improved his OPS+ from 2021, but his defence and baserunning both regressed (his SB-CS went from 25-1 to 13-8 and his GIDP from 10 to 21), leading his bWAR to drop from 5.4 to 3.6. He might be normally more of a 3-4 WAR guy rather than 5-6 (which is obviously still great).
Vlad is more interesting, because I'm not sure 2022 was as much of an off-year as it seemed. Brennan Delaney (https://twitter.com/Brennan_L_D/status/1575866443803275264) looked at Vlad's 2021 numbers and took out all his games in Dunedin and Buffalo (where he posted OPSs of 1.403 and 1.226, respectively). Vlad's resulting 2021 "major-league park production" was .296/.379/.514 with 27 homers in 504 PA (extrapolates to 37 over a full season). So from that perspective, here are Vlad's first four big-league slash lines (using the "major-league-only-parks" 2021 line):
2019: 514 PA, .272/.339/.433
2020: 243 PA, .262/.329/.462
2021: 504 PA, .296/.379/.514
2022: 706 PA: .274/.339/.480
Aside from a power increase, his 2022 basically replicated his 2019. 2021 was an outlier, but not by a staggering amount.
After almost 2,000 PAs in big-league parks, then, Vlad's OPS is roughly in the 850 range. Which is really good, obviously, especially for someone who debuted at 20 in this scoring environment. It's just not yet "generational talent" good. I'm obviously, *obviously* not "giving up on him." But this is something to consider when assessing how much more production Vlad is likely to generate.
Given all that, I feel like 2023 hinges on what the farm system can produce, because 2022 was pretty much a flop. While seemingly every other team got a boost from a young arm or bat this year, there were no breakout promotions in Toronto and no arms to bolster the pen or help when Ryu went down. Pearson and Hatch, who were supposed to be the top two backup starter options, gave them nothing.
If Moreno becomes a star right out of the gate next year and Zulueta/Hernandez/Tiedemann throw good innings in the majors, then the Jays really have something. If Vlad actually becomes the guy we thought he'd be, all the better. Otherwise, though, it's hard to see why the same basic team next year wouldn't generate pretty much the same basic result.
This is a really good and thought provoking post! If this is who Vladdy really is (and playing at a non-premier position), is this someone we need to lock up long term? There's a sort of similar argument with Bo if he turns into a 3-4 WAR player. Next year is going to be so incredibly interesting!
Very interesting perspective and I tend to agree with you about standing (mostly) pat. We won 92 games this year and Berrios was a disappointment, Kikuchi a disaster, Vladdy had a 'down' year, the bullpen was flawed, Hernandez was injured for a while, Springer was beat up - I could go on. So if you stay pretty much status quo, you could argue we're still a team good for 90ish wins - some players will improve, some will regress, Nate Pearson will get injured, etc.
But the danger is that we might become the pre-World Series Jays of the 'Stand Pat Gillick' days where we were also riding a young core. Good teams that either just missed getting in the playoffs or got in and were knocked out. Then came the big trade with the Padres - stars for stars - as well as some free agent additions. And we turned that into 2 World Series wins.
I'm not saying that's what we should do because there's not many star for star trades anymore, but if we stand pat and have a similar year next year, then I think something really significant needs to happen.
Or perhaps we just leave the jacket in the closet next year. Maybe that works.
Difference between then and now is many more teams make the playoffs. Could be wrong, but pretty sure the Jays were the last team to win it all before the wild card was introduced.
And yes, the Jays won in 92 and 93 after some big trades, but they also made the playoffs in 85, 89 and 91. (Let’s not talk about 87.) If they’re World Series Champs in any of those years, would we be talking about the need for big trades? Or maybe we’d be mythologizing transaction(s) from those years that we’ve otherwise forgotten about.
I’m almost tempted now to look up off season and trade deadline stories from those non-championship years. (I seem to remember some pretty big trades in 15 but sadly the World Series was cancelled that year so not relevant to this discussion.)
Anyway, I think this team could contend for the division next year and are favourites to be a wildcard team. After that, well, anything can happen in an elimination tournament. Not that I’m opposed to a big signing etc. Just choosing not to get worked up about it.
Since we’re talking off-season, which would be funnier:
a) Judge signs with the Mets, or
b) Judge signs with the Red Sox
Thanks, Stoeten, for making it clear that the only thing keeping millions from breathing a little easier is the greed a very few.
I think you're right about the third option. The course of the club is more or less locked in at this point: It’s too early to tear down and too late to significantly reset. They can deal a catcher (probably Jansen) to bring back a starter, and maybe a decent lefty bat can be obtained for prospects. But with Chapman, Gurriel, Hernandez, and Merrifield all FAs after 2023, and Springer not getting any less fragile, this is a win-right-now team.
I also agree that improvement will have to be internal. Bo actually improved his OPS+ from 2021, but his defence and baserunning both regressed (his SB-CS went from 25-1 to 13-8 and his GIDP from 10 to 21), leading his bWAR to drop from 5.4 to 3.6. He might be normally more of a 3-4 WAR guy rather than 5-6 (which is obviously still great).
Vlad is more interesting, because I'm not sure 2022 was as much of an off-year as it seemed. Brennan Delaney (https://twitter.com/Brennan_L_D/status/1575866443803275264) looked at Vlad's 2021 numbers and took out all his games in Dunedin and Buffalo (where he posted OPSs of 1.403 and 1.226, respectively). Vlad's resulting 2021 "major-league park production" was .296/.379/.514 with 27 homers in 504 PA (extrapolates to 37 over a full season). So from that perspective, here are Vlad's first four big-league slash lines (using the "major-league-only-parks" 2021 line):
2019: 514 PA, .272/.339/.433
2020: 243 PA, .262/.329/.462
2021: 504 PA, .296/.379/.514
2022: 706 PA: .274/.339/.480
Aside from a power increase, his 2022 basically replicated his 2019. 2021 was an outlier, but not by a staggering amount.
After almost 2,000 PAs in big-league parks, then, Vlad's OPS is roughly in the 850 range. Which is really good, obviously, especially for someone who debuted at 20 in this scoring environment. It's just not yet "generational talent" good. I'm obviously, *obviously* not "giving up on him." But this is something to consider when assessing how much more production Vlad is likely to generate.
Given all that, I feel like 2023 hinges on what the farm system can produce, because 2022 was pretty much a flop. While seemingly every other team got a boost from a young arm or bat this year, there were no breakout promotions in Toronto and no arms to bolster the pen or help when Ryu went down. Pearson and Hatch, who were supposed to be the top two backup starter options, gave them nothing.
If Moreno becomes a star right out of the gate next year and Zulueta/Hernandez/Tiedemann throw good innings in the majors, then the Jays really have something. If Vlad actually becomes the guy we thought he'd be, all the better. Otherwise, though, it's hard to see why the same basic team next year wouldn't generate pretty much the same basic result.
This is a really good and thought provoking post! If this is who Vladdy really is (and playing at a non-premier position), is this someone we need to lock up long term? There's a sort of similar argument with Bo if he turns into a 3-4 WAR player. Next year is going to be so incredibly interesting!
The Arizona Diamondbacks have 5 left batting outfielders on their current roster, with more in the minors. Any chance they want a catcher?
Very interesting perspective and I tend to agree with you about standing (mostly) pat. We won 92 games this year and Berrios was a disappointment, Kikuchi a disaster, Vladdy had a 'down' year, the bullpen was flawed, Hernandez was injured for a while, Springer was beat up - I could go on. So if you stay pretty much status quo, you could argue we're still a team good for 90ish wins - some players will improve, some will regress, Nate Pearson will get injured, etc.
But the danger is that we might become the pre-World Series Jays of the 'Stand Pat Gillick' days where we were also riding a young core. Good teams that either just missed getting in the playoffs or got in and were knocked out. Then came the big trade with the Padres - stars for stars - as well as some free agent additions. And we turned that into 2 World Series wins.
I'm not saying that's what we should do because there's not many star for star trades anymore, but if we stand pat and have a similar year next year, then I think something really significant needs to happen.
Or perhaps we just leave the jacket in the closet next year. Maybe that works.
Difference between then and now is many more teams make the playoffs. Could be wrong, but pretty sure the Jays were the last team to win it all before the wild card was introduced.
And yes, the Jays won in 92 and 93 after some big trades, but they also made the playoffs in 85, 89 and 91. (Let’s not talk about 87.) If they’re World Series Champs in any of those years, would we be talking about the need for big trades? Or maybe we’d be mythologizing transaction(s) from those years that we’ve otherwise forgotten about.
I’m almost tempted now to look up off season and trade deadline stories from those non-championship years. (I seem to remember some pretty big trades in 15 but sadly the World Series was cancelled that year so not relevant to this discussion.)
Anyway, I think this team could contend for the division next year and are favourites to be a wildcard team. After that, well, anything can happen in an elimination tournament. Not that I’m opposed to a big signing etc. Just choosing not to get worked up about it.