Rumours and links and things: Saturday, January 16
On D.J. LeMahieu, Corey Kluber, George Springer, arbitration, international signings, J.T. Realmuto and more!
I was busy much of Friday working on this week’s mail bag, so I wasn’t able to get another post up, but it was a busy day on the rumours-and-bad-news front, and I didn’t want to wait until Monday to get to all that stuff. So here’s a rare treat for you, a Saturday post!
Housekeeping!
Before we get to the task at hand, I’d like to let you know that I’ve started up a Facebook page for the site. I don’t really use Facebook myself, as I’m doomed to walk the earth shackled to Twitter, and that’s about all the social media I can handle. But I will be posting everything I do on there just as soon as it goes up. So, if you’d like to see my work in your feed, or want to share it with your friends, go give it a like.
D.J. LeMahieu does the predictable thing
I touched on this in the mail bag, but I think it’s worth getting into here. D.J. LeMahieu always seemed to be the top free agent least likely to take the Jays’ money, and the reports last week of his agent circling back to teams that had expressed interest earlier, because he wasn’t hearing the number he wanted to hear from the Yankees, made that pretty clear.
It stinks that the Jays have once again missed out on a free agent — even more so because it means we’re going to keep hearing from people who’ve convinced themselves the sky is falling here. Adding LeMahieu for four years at $78 million, as Jon Heyman reports the Jays were offering, would have been a pretty good deal, I think. I can understand why that was their top offer. I also understand why the Yankees ended up getting him signed. If the Jays had simply matched what the New York was offering, it seems clear that he would have chosen to stay in pinstripes. So they’d have had to go to what? Something like $100 million over five years?
That’s a lot of money and term for a guy who will turn 33 in July. And I’m not sure that LeMahieu was ever the guy they were going to go beyond their comfort zone with. Like the other free agents they’ve missed on so far, my sense is that they would have been happy to have him at their number, but not particularly disturbed to see him go elsewhere because of all the other options still available to them. Springer is the guy I’d bet they let themselves go harder for. Sort of like Ryu was last year (at least once it became clear that Wheeler wasn’t going to come here and that landing Cole was beyond their means).
Clearly going to a fourth year with the oft-injured Ryu, who was just a couple months from his 33rd birthday when they signed him, is not the act of a front office that always sticks hard by its strict valuations. And while we definitely do need to recognize that signing Ryu is just one counterexample among a sea of silver medals, the Jays really haven’t been in the market for top free agent talent for most of the time that Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins have been here. So that needs to be remembered as well.
None of this is to say that they’re definitely going to step up big and make sure they get Springer. They may not. They may get outbid, or Springer may choose a lesser offer to stay closer to his Connecticut home, or because COVID-related restrictions could make crossing the border an issue for his family. But some people seem to really want to take everything that’s brought us to this point as a case of the team not trying or not actually being serious, and it’s really not.
If they miss on Springer as well, they’ll move on to other options. Those options will maybe be less exciting, but they’ll add talent to the roster. No one should have any doubt that that’s going to happen. And let’s not forget that 21 of the top 27 names on MLB Trade Rumors’ top 50 free agents list are still available.
Adding some of the best players in the sport would seem to me to be a better thing to do than merely adding a few good players, but we’ll see how that goes! I do, however, suspect that some of the Jays’ inaction so far has been about not tying up payroll in other players that they may need to make an offer that blows the other ones made to Springer out of the water. So that’s maybe good, right? Right??
Kluber offered a clue
The Yankees struck a deal with another free agent on Friday, signing two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber to a one-year deal worth $11 million. For me, this probably hurts more than the LeMahieu signing. Frankly, as someone who isn’t a huge believer in LeMahieu (his home parks and the 60-game 2020 season have definitely had a funhouse mirror effect on some of his numbers), the Jays forcing the New York to up their offer is actually kind of funny.
I do agree with this on Kluber, however.
But it’s hard to get too mad about this one either. Kluber, as I noted in a piece back on Wednesday, held a showcase for teams this week at Cressy Sports Performance in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. That was significant because it turns out had been rehabbing with Eric Cressy, who is both the owner of the aforementioned gym and the Yankees’ “director of health and performance.”
All else being equal, it’s not hard to understand Kluber wanting to continue to work with the trainer who seemingly has led him through a successful rehab process. Should the Jays have offered two guaranteed years to a guy who turns 35 in April and has thrown just 36 2/3 innings over the last two seasons? Probably not. I’ll bet he’s better than Tanner Roark though.
Now, can we please just sign Taijuan Walker. (And then add another starter beyond that for good measure.)
Actual Toronto Blue Jays transactions!
The Blue Jays did more than just watching the Yankees get better on Friday, as it was both the deadline for teams to avoid arbitration with their arbitration-eligible players as well as international signing day.
On the big league front, the Jays agreed to terms with their two arbitration-eligible guys, getting Teoscar Hernández done for $4.325 million and Ross Stripling at $3 million.
Teoscar has two more shots at arbitration before he is due to hit free agency following the 2023 season, and one has to wonder if there was talk of an extension between the two sides before coming to an agreement at this number, though maybe that’s not going to be in cards. It’s definitely understandable on the Jays’ end to want to see a little more performance out of him before they start paying him like the hitter he’s been since mid-2019. And on Teoscar’s side, he’ll be heading into his age-31 season when he reaches free agency, and he’s probably not going to want to push that number back by very much.
Probably something that will make more sense in a year.
Meanwhile, the Jays added eleven teens on the international free agent front (with a twelfth poised to be added pending a physical, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet).
The name to really pay attention to here is Manuel Beltre, who MLB Pipeline had as the number 24 prospect in the class, but who Baseball America had as their number 10 prospect. Pipeline suggests that Beltre, who is from the Dominican Republic and will turn 17 in June, is possibly the most advanced hitter in the class, having been on the travel ball circuit in Florida in recent years. He's an infielder who Pipeline says has a chance to be an above average defender at second base, though shortstop is still an option as well. They add that scouts "love his makeup, baseball IQ and dedication to the sport."
BA calls him a gym rat, and notes that while he may not be "as tooled-up as some of the other top prospects in the class," he has "a ton of game experience relative to his peers and it's evident in his all-around instincts and fundamentally sound play."
The other notable name is the one that’s not mentioned in the Jays’ tweet. Martin Gimenez did not make Pipeline's top 30, but ranks number 39 on BA's list. "He has a chance to develop into a power bat once he fills out, with some scouts praising his swing and approach, though others said he's still learning to recognize breaking pitches." The expect him to end up at third base or in the outfield.
Here’s a clip that’s compiled some batting practice footage of several of the Jays’ newest additions.
Oh, and there was one more transaction that the Jays made on Friday, officially releasing right-hander Walker Lockett so that he could sign with the Doosan Bears of the KBO.
More rumours and links and such
The Athletic’s Jayson Stark reported on Friday that the Phillies have made a five-year, nine-figure offer to free agent catcher J.T. Realmuto, and that they now seem to be the favourites to land him. The offer, he says, is below the $200 million some reports have suggested he’s looking for, so there’s time yet for the Jays to get back in on this race. But he seems less likely to land here than others. And, as Stark writes, “indications are their No. 1 free-agent priority is still center fielder George Springer.”
Jon Heyman tweeted essentially the same thing regarding the Jays and Realmuto, saying that the Jays have checked in on him, but that they seem more focused now on Springer, as centre is a bigger area of need. He adds that the battle for Springer’s signature is with “at least the Mets.” Don’t count out a mystery team spoiling the party just yet!
It seemed for a while on Friday that the Mets might have been making it difficult for themselves to fit Springer while still staying under the luxury tax. Ken Rosenthal reported early Friday that the Mets and reliever Brad Hand were close to a deal. Subsequent reports, however, made it clear that a deal wasn’t close, and Hand remains a free agent.
The Mets' CBT crunch was made a little bit crunchier by a devlopment on Friday though. Francisco Lindor avoided arbitration by signing a $22 million deal, which is above the $19 million that had originally been projected by Cot's and MLB Trade Rumors. Michael Conforto and Edwin Díaz both also came in above some of their projections. As it stands, Cot's now has their luxury tax number at $182.9 million, leaving $27.1 million under the threshold. If, as has been reported, the Mets would like to keep $5 to $10 million below the threshold in order to take on some salary in-season, they won't be able to get Springer on board. A lot of ifs there though!
The less rosy news on Springer came from a Friday piece at MLB.com from Jon Morosi, who reports that Springer is “said to have a preference to play near his home state of Connecticut.” Said by whom? We have no idea. And unless it’s Springer himself, that doesn’t really mean much. But Queens is definitely closer to Connecticut, and there don’t appear to be direct commercial flights from Toronto to either. Of course, a guy on a salary above $25 million per year could probably spring for a few private jet trips, which would make the difference less.
Speaking of Hand (weren’t we?), on Saturday afternoon, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reported that the Jays are, naturally, interested in him as well. The Jays will definitely need to add in the bullpen, and hopefully once this Springer business gets cleared up they’ll be able to start shelling out some money on that front. In addition to Hand (who had 29 strikeouts and four walks in 22 innings in 2020), Ben reports that the Jays have shown interest in Joakim Soria (24 strikeouts and 10 walks over 22 1/3 innings in 2020), and bounce-back candidate Kirby Yates, who had bone spurs removed from his throwing elbow during a lost 2020 season (he only made six appearances), but was spectacular for the Padres in 2019 (101 strikeouts and 13 walks over 60 2/3 innings). A Yates deal appeared earlier on Saturday to be imminent, and Ben tweeted that though the Jays have had serious interest, they don’t appear to be frontrunners. He also notes that starter Jake Odorizzi is of interest.
Paul Berthelot of Blue Jays Nation dives into the numbers are tries to make sense Rowdy Tellez’s 2020 breakout and what can be expected of the Jays’ first baseman in 2021.
Keegan Matheson of BlueJays.com gives us a little background on every Blue Jays fan’s favourite (or least favourite) song, “OK Blue Jays.”
From back on Thursday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet makes the case that the Blue Jays should make adding some pitching a priority this winter — and suggests the possibility of a deal for a Reds pitcher like Sonny Gray or Luis Castillo, which I also touched on at one point in Friday’s mail bag.
Lastly, over at the Globe and Mail, Cathal Kelly very predictably takes the occasion of Mark Shapiro signing a contract to grind his axe.
That Cathal piece is terrible. You can't deny Shapiro credit for the Jays making the ALCS in '16 and also deny him credit for his Cleveland squad coming thiiiiiis close to winning it all the same year. And you can't begrudge him for payroll slash in 18 and 19 without at least mentioning paying Grichuk and Ryu, and offering DJLM 70+ million and offering Springer a bunch of money.
I mean obviously you can do those things apparently but oh well....
The DJ stuff doesn't surprise or disappoint me; the Yankees historically rarely don't sign one of their own free agents. As I've already said, the inability to get even one year of Lindor, plus Hendriks not signing here, are the two I think the Jays missed the boat on.
I can't help but think that if they come up short on Springer would be a negative by-product of not getting Lindor as well.