Stray Thoughts... - We're going to Vlad's Knee Land!
On keeping pace, more Manoah, Vlad's knee, Chapman's QO, Aaron Boone, Lance Barrett, Cavan Biggio, Danny Jansen, Yusei Kikuchzzzz, Paul DeJong, that other site, Gerrit Cole, and more!
The Blue Jays kept pace with the Rangers, Astros, and Mariners on Wednesday thanks to a 6-1 victory over the Yankees in the Bronx that was less comfortable for much of the night than the score line suggests. They now find themselves up a game on Texas and Seattle and a half game up on Houston, and because they hold the tiebreaker on the Astros but not the Rangers or Mariners, they basically—though not precisely, because Houston only has nine games left—just need to keep pace with whichever of those three teams plays the worst down the stretch.
Helping immensely, of course, is that Texas and Seattle still play each other seven more times, starting with a three-game set in Texas that begins on Friday. One of those two is certain to lose at least four more times, and one—though not necessarily the one that will ultimately lose four—will lose twice this weekend.
In other words, the Jays could lose a couple between here and Monday’s off-day and they’d still be very much in the thick of it. They could probably even lose three.
I would very much suggest that they do not do that. But, if we're being honest, they are probably not going to win all of their remaining games, so we're going to have to brace ourselves for the good times to pause at some point. Especially with Gerrit Cole on the mound for the Yankees here on Wednesday, and with a series at the Trop following that. The Rays still have a chance to chase down the Orioles and secure a bye into the second round—and, as MLB.com’s Mike Petriello tells us, possess a bullpen that has completely turned around since their awful start to the season, and this month has produced “the highest K% any bullpen has had in any month dating back to at least 1969”—so, unfortunately, they’re going to be tough.
Just because the door is wide open, it doesn’t mean these ponies are going to walk on through it. Fortunately, at least by now nobody who has watched this team all season couldn’t possibly believe it was going to be easy anyway.
Even more fortunate is the fact that the Yankees, who the Jays will host after they return from Tampa—see you next Tuesday, Aaron Boone!—have yet to really look as though they want to hide the fact that they’re just playing out the string.
Whit will get his chance tomorrow, but first José Berríos has to get the job done against Cole. A win tonight would be massive—a statement that will be true on every game day from now until the Jays clear out their lockers.
Here are today’s stray thoughts…
I’ll be honest here, friends. This site keeps the lights on for me, but it isn’t a cash cow. And I could live a lot more comfortably than I do right now if I was willing to put some of my work behind a paywall and push a bunch readers who are on the fence into becoming paid subscribers. But, the thing is, I know that times are tough for a lot of people and I really don’t want to become inaccessible to anyone. So, if you can afford it, and you value what I do and aren’t already a paid subscriber, I’d ask that you consider upgrading your free membership to a paid one. Thanks. — Stoeten
Man(oah) on a Mission (to get paid)
Oh boy, more Alek Manoah drama! Everybody’s favourite!
In today’s edition of our little soap opera, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that Manoah has received multiple injections to his pitching arm in recent weeks, intended to "reduce inflammation and discomfort," and he's continuing to visit specialists "with a view toward ruling out elbow and shoulder issues, as well as Thoracic Outlet Syndrome."
We're also told that "Manoah didn’t report to triple-A right away as he was about to undergo medical testing in Toronto to determine whether he was dealing with physical wear and tear or something more serious."
The spin is really flowing now, huh?
Clearly we're headed for a grievance—which is surely why Ross Atkins mentioned that the commissioner's office was involved when he spoke about the situation back at the end of last month—because the Blue Jays would certainly not be leaking stuff like this, which comes off as laboratory designed to undermine their stance that Manoah wasn't hurt and didn't need to be placed on the IL. My interpretation, then, is that this is how Manoah’s camp is going to try to play this, and that they appear to be digging in and gearing up for war. Or at least sending up a trial balloon.
Unfortunately for Manoah, this new spin doesn’t exactly alter my sense that his case for a grievance is pretty weak. Perhaps something will arise that changes things—I wrote in yesterday’s Stray Thoughts about trying to be fair to Manoah in this, which I do think is important—but for many reasons it’s just kind of implausible to believe that the Jays would have behaved the way that’s being implied. And, if the case for a grievance was particularly strong, this attempt to change the narrative seems pretty desperate.
There is no doubt that Manoah could have had a physical issue that impacted his performance this season. It certainly looked like it, given that he lost some zip on his fastball and seemed to have trouble finishing his pitches in the same way he had in 2022. And it’s definitely plausible that problems could have been caused by his career arc—about 125 innings in 2019, no competitive innings in 2020, around 130 in 2021, then 202 1/3 (including the playoff start) in 2022. Or because he’s simply a big dude (as he has always been you weirdos).
But he pitched. And the Jays can’t find anything wrong with him. And this multitude of additional tests evidently can’t find anything wrong with him either. He had these “injections” of something—we’re not being told what—for “inflammation and discomfort,” but these happened “in recent weeks” and he hasn’t been on a mound since August 10th.
We know that inflammation can show up on an MRI, and can lead to guys going on the injured list. There are countless examples of this across the league, and among Blue Jays players, that we could point to. Bo Bichette’s MRI before he went on the IL for his knee in late July showed inflammation but no structural damage. Erik Swanson and Jordan Romano both landed on the IL when their scans showed inflammation. It’s a standard diagnostic tool for a team’s medical staff. And if Manoah had inflammation show up on an MRI and the Jays demoted him instead of placing him on the IL, or if they didn’t send him for an MRI at all, he’d have a real case here. But if that’s what happened why wouldn’t we be hearing that?
Why, instead, are we only getting vague allusions to something like that? Why were the earlier reports about tests being done on his “his knee, back, and right quad”? Why would the Blue Jays do any of this? Why would they risk both a grievance and poisoning their relationship with a supposedly important player? And why does it seem to have only come up after Manoah was demoted to the minors and it became all but certain that he wouldn’t be able to achieve the very lucrative “Super Two” contract status this winter?
The Blue Jays and their medical staff are hardly unassailable—ask Josh Donaldson!—and it’s important to remember that. But in the court of public opinion, Manoah’s camp is going to have real difficulty overcoming the timeline here, the obvious financial implications, the fact that he absolutely deserved a demotion, and the way that—I’m sorry to say—all these tests come off like fishing expeditions. And until they want to say, or leak, something concrete that’s going to actually counter any of that, I don’t think anything’s going to change.
I mean, I’ve been going out of my way to try to be fair in this, yet even I feel left with no other way to really see it. Hope I’m wrong and this is all a misunderstanding and things can eventually be repaired here, but it feels bleak for the relationship between Manoah and the Jays at the moment. And I suspect another major problem for Manoah’s PR team here is… uh… when you get right down to it, if he’s going to pitch the way he did this season, who the hell even cares?
I Knee-d To Be Stopped
We’re long past the point where any of my wondering about what’s up with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s weird season is remotely coherent, so take this all with a coffee spoon of salt, but the maddening young slugger was a late scratch on Wednesday due to “right knee discomfort” and will miss the game again here on Thursday.
That discomfort was evident as he was running the bases on Tuesday night, and the fact that he initially found himself in the starting lineup anyway perhaps suggests a certain normalcy to his knee troubles.
It’s weird and very likely wrong of me to keep suggesting—when I’m not suggesting that the issue is his wrist!—that this could be an ongoing thing with him that might explain his strange power output this season. And probably even weirder and wronger to do so considering he homered in three straight games over the weekend.
But he missed the WBC because of a problem with the same knee back in February/March, then missed games when he tweaked it in May, and is now about to miss his second straight game in September. (UPDATE: Thankfully he seems to be out of the woods with respect to it potentially being a more serious thing.)
As I wrote earlier this month, there really is a whole lot that’s similar in his numbers—launch angles, pull rates, ground ball rates, production to the pull and opposite sides—to what he was doing in 2021. Yet one thing that jumps out that is very different is how he’s done on fly balls to centre.
Average distances on flies to centre are lower, and his wRC+ and HR/FB% have cratered (or had when I looked on September 2nd, though little could have changed in a matter two-plus weeks).
A long-running issue with the knee of his back leg? I continue to wonder! Or at least hope there’s some kind of a tangible explanation for a season that has just been so weird. And, as I said at the time, while it certainly feels like he’s been a completely different hitter this year, a whole lot of that feeling would have been muted if “he'd had 16 of of 68 flyballs to centre go over the fence, like in '21, instead of three of 57.”
Status: QO
On Wednesday, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that this winter teams will have some higher-stakes decisions to make than they ever have before, as it's going to be more expensive than ever to retain impending free agents via the Qualifying Offer. The QO figure is set to surpass the $20 million mark for the first time, rising to approximately $20.5 million.
Only fourteen players received QO's last year, and the number will likely be even smaller this time around. Brandon Wile of theScore suggests that the only locks are Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Sonny Gray, Aaron Nola, and Blake Snell. In the "maybe" camp he has just two players: Josh Hader and the Blue Jays' own Matt Chapman.
It may seem like a no-brainer to some for the Jays to give Chapman the offer and “risk” being on the hook for one more year of his services at $20.5 million, especially because I doubt that the gold glover would have many qualms about turning that down and hitting the open market. But fans and front offices don't always tend to align on this stuff.
Based on Chapman's performance since April, there are certainly better ways to spend $20.5 million, so it wouldn't entirely surprise me if the Jays declined. A pillow contract to help him get and even better long-term deal just over a year from now seems like a pretty good outcome, and I get the sense that he's a player who'd be willing to bet on himself, but generally it's best to take long-term deals when they're on the table.
Chapman's production from here on out could still hold a bit of sway over all of this, and we're going to have a lot of offseason in which to debate the subject anyway, so I'll leave it at that. But at least we now know the actual dollar figure we'll be arguing over, or thereabouts.
Quickly…
• You love to see it. (I mean, you’d love to see a timeline for him getting back on the field, but still!)
• Was getting the sense from Wednesday night’s game that Buck Martinez doesn’t like it when catchers setup on one knee. Did anybody else notice this?
• Related.
• Also related to last night’s game: I sure would like to never see Michael King again, and the same goes for the awful strike zone of home plate umpire Lance Barrett. The same, evidently, goes for Aaron Boone.
• Cavan Biggio’s defence, on the other hand, I could use more of. As in: more games at first base next year, please. Although, I noted yesterday that Vlad has graded out brutally for his range this year by both DRS an OAA, but… you know… if there was maybe a… uh… knee thing…
• We learned before Wednesday night’s game that Yusei Kikuchi was just joking about sleeping 13 of 14 hours every night—SOME MIGHT CALL THAT LYING, YUSEI—and that he only does so on days when he starts. Fortunately, it has already become enough of a thing that there’s no stopping it. Sir, a second plane has hit the Kikuchi meme. Good job everyone, keep posting!
• MLB Network’s Jon Morosi gives a nice roundup of the Japanese stars who might move to North America this winter, in what he says he’s been told “will be one of the best ever for talent moving from Japan and Korea.” Less nice: Not a damn bat among them.
• Old fiend alert: Paul DeJong has been released by the San Francisco Giants after just 18 games in which he went 9-for-49 (.184), striking out 16 times with zero walks. His -0.3 fWAR in San Fran didn’t quite match his -0.9 mark with the Jays, but I’m starting to think the poor guy might just be washed.
• Great stuff as always from Nick, who writes over at Yahoo about the exceptional patience the Jays have shown in September, and how they’re using their ability to walk as a weapon. Hmm, I seem to recall something potentially related to this happening against the Yankees on Wednesday.
• Speaking of Nick, we’ll be recording a fresh podcast following the game tonight, so look for the episode late, or early tomorrow morning.
• Lastly, it seems like everyone’s moving over to Bluesky this week, so this feels like a good time to mention once again that I’m over there as well. I’m not saying a ton just yet, but always posting links when anything goes up on the site.
Follow me: stoeten.bsky.social
• NOW WIN AGAIN YOU JERKS! I’VE SEEN YOU HIT COLE WELL! IT’S POSSIBLE! DON’T LET THE RANGERS AND MARINERS OFF THE MAT!
⚾ Be sure to follow me on Twitter // Follow the Batflip on Facebook // Want to support without going through Substack? You could always send cash to stoeten@gmail.com on Paypal or via Interac e-Transfer. I assure you I won’t say no. ⚾
As for Buck, I would not be surprised if this is his last season in the booth....so let's get down on one knee and savor the experience. I'll miss him.
There needs to be a promotional 'Bring a Pillow' night next time Kikuchzzz pitches at home.